Welcome to the NFL playoffs!  Three days from now, Tampa Bay and New York meet for the first time in playoff history.  Jon Gruden's Bucs are three point favorites.  But are they really the better team?  I say...............................................................

Now that we have your attention, let's break this baby down.  First W/L trends in the regular season.

Giants went on a six game win streak before their bye in week 9.  After losses to Dallas and GB, Giants beat WASH, PHI, NYJ, ATL, SF. and MIA.  Only WASH is in the playoffs.  After the bye NY went 4 and 4, with wins over DET, CHI, PHI and BUF.   No playoffs teams there.  They lost to DAL, MIN, WASH, and NE.  Three of four are in the playoffs.

TB's first eight games  4 wins 4 losses,  Wins coming against NO, STL, CAR and TEN.  One team is in the playoffs, TEN.  Losses were against SEA, IND, DET, and JAC.  Three of four are in the playoffs.  Bucs went 5-3 the final eight games, opening with a four game winning streak vs. ARZ, ATL, WASH, and NO.  Then they beat ATL again. WASH only playoff team.  Losses came against HOU, SF, CAR. 

Forget about resting players those final two weeks.  Neither team is heading into this wild-card game with momentum.  If NY has an advantage, it was the caliber of opponents they played in the second half of the season. 

THE MATCHUP:  BUCS OFFENSE VS. GIANTS DEFENSE

Bucs offense will face one of the better pass rush defenses in the NFL.  Giants have recorded a league leading 53 sacks.  DE OSI Umenyiora (13), Justin Tuck (10) and Michael Strahan (9).  Only three QB's have thrown for over 300 yards vs. Giants defense in 2007:  Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Jon Kitna.  Will Jeff Garcia be the fourth?  There is that possibility.  Here's why.  TB will likely have to delve into that playbook using quick passes to move the football.  NY does not allow opposing RB's much room to run.  Only Brian Westbrook (116) and his replacement Correll Buckhalter (103) have gone over 100 yards vs. NY this season.  You beat NY in the air, pure and simple.  Tight End usage in passing game will likely be paramount.  Don't believe for a minute that TB didn't test their TE's the past two weeks for giggles.  They wanted to find out who will be a major part of their game plan Sunday.  The name Jeramy Stevens.  Now for THE KEY to the Bucs success on offense.  REDZONE!  My major concern is the Bucs inability to put the ball in the endzone from the redzone.  I've been riding this albatross for weeks, and the Bucs know it's been a problem.  Should TB find success in the redzone, which may come only a couple of times in this game, TD's are paramount.

ADVANTAGE: Giants

THE MATCHUP:  GIANTS OFFENSE VS. BUCS DEFENSE

There is little doubt to disrupt the comfort factor of this Giants offense is to stop the running game, ala Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward.  If NY is able to run the ball, that's bad news for TB.  You stop the run and force the game into QB Eli Manning's hands.  Once you force NY's hand to throw, Manning has not shown, on a consistent basis, he can handle the pressure.  Furthermore, when he needs to throw, you can bet 8 out of 10 times, he's looking for Plaxico Burress.  Burress is a strong, tall and physical player that could give the Bucs corners and safeties fits.  So if your Monte Kiffin, what do you do?  I bring pressure early and often.  Force Jacobs to stay in for protection.  The Bucs defense must send an early message to retain that home field flavor. 

ADVANTAGE: Bucs

THE MATCHUP: SPECIAL TEAMS

Never more has this unit become the focal point of winning and losing a game this season. Because of the defensive strength's of each team, field position will likely be the defining factor of who wins this game.  Josh Bidwell and Matt Bryant are the clear cut one-two punch that gives the Bucs the edge here. 

THE PREDICTION

I am expecting a low scoring game.  The only way this contest goes over 39 1/2 points (O/U in Vegas) is if one of these two teams imploded.  Not expecting that to happen.  That's why I think when there's a good chance of scoring TD's, you better get it done. 

My prediction.  Bryant moves Bucs to next round.  Final Bucs 16 Giants 14.