TK'S BUCS PICK

                                          FALCONS VS. BUCS

                                            LINE: BUCS -7 1/2

   It's tough enough trying to make weekly Bucs picks without these soap opera stories filtering into the equation.  Enter Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden.  Garcia spoke for the first time since his "one week benching" by the head coach.  Garcia is not happy about the decision, and I wouldn't expect less from him.  Although he feels he's physically able to perform on Sunday, Garcia did admit he left a couple of plays out on the field that could have altered the game.  Gruden saw more, and decided to name Brian Griese as the starter vs. ATL.

   If you think Gruden is making a mistake, then I have an issue with your logic.  Garcia is not 100% healthy.  This is not only a protective measure for Garcia, but for the team.  Griese and Garcia give this team the best chance to win on weekly basis.  In my estimation, both are on par with each other.  With this being a second consecutive division game, a win is paramount, considering the opening week loss to NO.  You go with the fresh guy in this case. 

   Personally, I don't see a drop off here using Griese.  My concern is with the wide receivers!  Joey Galloway better be in full flight Sunday.  Stovall is questionable with a neck strain. ( By the way, did you see the angst on Gruden's face when he was caught on camera asking about Stovall's condition?).  Folks, WR is the problem.  Galloway needs to get separation.  Ike is fine.  He'll cut acrosss the middle, he'll do the short to medium routes, and be affective.  But hello, there is no one else.  Michael Clayton didn't even dress last Sunday.  Where do you REALLY think his mind is.  Dexter Jackson needs to be more than a kick/punt returner, or you can kiss Galloway's affectiveness goodbye.  Where's the tight end's, presumably one of Gruden's favorite targets in the WC offense. 

    Atlanta's defense has improved, John Abraham is one of the best DE in the business. Lawyer Milloy and Erik Coleman are very capable safeties.  I would attack ATL's corners and linebackers.  That's their liability.  So don't look for the Bucs to gain big chunks of yardage. 

     And how will the Bucs defense respond to getting "drilled" for three big plays vs. NO for TD's.  Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are capable, and it looks like rookie QB Matt Ryan isn't freaking out in the big leagues.  He had a 137 QB rating against Detroit.  And we haven't even gotten to ATL's real strength on offense, the running game.  RB Michael Turner lit it up with 220 yards and 2 TD's vs. DET.  RB Jerious Norwood rushed for 93 yards and 1TD vs. DET.  But, I did hear Bucs linebacker Derrick Brooks say that the NFL defenses will be much better in week two.  We're talking across the league.  First week, the offense has the advantage.  Expect the Bucs defense to tighten the reigns, and I don't expect Ryan to pull off what Brees did last week against the Bucs secondary. 

    Normally at this time, I lay my pick on the line.  However, I am reserving the right to hold off until Saturday to post it.  By Wednesday of last week, I had true conviction in my thinking the Bucs weren't ready.  We were right, going 1-0 vs. spread.  But 7 1/2 points is a chunk, and I need to do more "investigating" before making my decision.  If I were a betting man, I would lay off this game entirely.  Since this is for entertainment purposes only, I will oblige later this week.

    Have patience my friends.

    Tom Korun