First of all, don’t get trapped into thinking the Saints offense is now the “greatest show on turf.”   The 51 points they laid on the Packers Monday night was impressive, but consider who they played.  The NFC North Division is weak.  Last time I looked, the Bucs went 4 and oh against that division this season. 

     Saints Quarterback Drew Brees is coming in with plenty of confidence, but even he knows, this Bucs defense is not one you’re going to fool all the time.  Oh yes, in week one, he hit two big plays against the secondary.  The Bucs were still in that game, but didn’t have the finish on offense to get it done.   This time, they have a healthy Jeff Garcia.  He told me flat out Wednesday that having that comeback ability is one of their strengths right now.  It’s getting off to a quick start early, and in the second half that’s no there.

     This is the first of three defining division games for the Bucs.  Carolina follows, Atlanta the following week.  A win Sunday would eliminate NO.  Frankly, with the talent NO has, they’ve underachieved this season.

     Not to say this game is a slam dunk for the Bucs.  Not by any means.  History tells us this game will be decided by less than a TD, likely less than five points.  Can you spell Matt Bryant?  The sure Pro-Bowler, according to Head Coach Jon Gruden, will be called upon.  He may not win it at the end, but he will make a difference.

     Bucs are 3 ½ point favorites over New Orleans.  Hate those half points, but we’ll deal with it.  The Bucs are riding their second three game win streak.  Their last one ended on the road at Denver.  This time, they push it to four in a row, but I’m going to take the 3 ½ points.

                                  TK’s PICK: Saints +3 ½

                                  TK vs. Spread  7-2-1

      Tom Korun